Introduction
Theory is the perpetual prediction engine for milestone-aware, timing-sensitive events. Built on Hyperliquid HIP-4 Event Futures, it keeps a single main market open for the narrative while milestone markets and a fee-funded reward pool retroactively pay early conviction.Narrative Futures
A main HIP-4 binary market that prices imminence—“Is this narrative nearing confirmation?”—with no arbitrary deadline.
Milestone markets
Independent HIP-4 markets for observable milestones (claims, benchmarks, replications, consensus) that trigger rewards.
Fee-funded rewards
Trading fees from the main and milestone markets stream into a HyperEVM pool that pays time-weighted bonuses to early longs.
AI oracle network
Distributed AI agents monitor news, vote on milestone completion, and initiate HIP-4 resolutions with a challenge window.
Core Concepts
Main narrative market
Trades between 0 and 1, stays open until conservative confirmation or disproof, and determines reward eligibility.
Milestone markets
Separate HIP-4 binaries for each milestone; they provide price discovery and trigger reward distributions when they resolve.
Reward pool
HyperEVM contract accumulates routed fees and distributes time-weighted payouts to eligible main-market longs.
Imminence framing
The question is “Is this happening soon?” rather than “Will it ever happen by a date?”—no deadline risk or roll friction.
How Theory Works
Open the main market
Deploy a HIP-4 binary market for the narrative (e.g., “AGI confirmed?”) that trades purely on order-book consensus.
List milestone markets
Publish HIP-4 markets for milestones (claims, benchmarks, replication, consensus) to provide granular signals.
Route fees to rewards
Half of deployer/milestone fees accumulate in the reward pool; optional sponsors can top it up.
Why This Market Type?
Timing-sensitive events need open-ended markets
Timing-sensitive events need open-ended markets
Fixed deadlines distort timing risk. The main HIP-4 market remains open until conservative confirmation or disproof.
Evidence must be priced as it lands
Evidence must be priced as it lands
Separate milestone markets let prices react to real-world evidence instantly—no oracle crawl or composite lag.
Early conviction deserves outsized rewards
Early conviction deserves outsized rewards
Fee-funded, time-weighted payouts compensate longs who were in before milestones and final confirmation.
Quick Links
System Design
Deep dive on HIP-4 markets, reward pool mechanics, and oracle flows.
Lifecycle Walkthrough
Step-by-step example of a market from launch to final confirmation.
Why Theory
Learn why traditional markets miss timing-sensitive, multi-stage events.